Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,868$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,943.0}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 156.5)}}\) (asimptote \(158,943.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,108$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,779.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,779.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $107,865$ on 2020-10-07

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $835,901$ on 2020-10-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,562$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,746.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,746.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $652,963$ on 2020-10-07

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $546,952$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{372,842.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(372,842.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,605$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,038.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(41,038.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $501,922$ on 2020-10-07

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $333,940$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260,300.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(260,300.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,061$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,968.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(34,968.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,576$ on 2020-10-07

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,677$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,375.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 98.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,375.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,892$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,773.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,773.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,785$ on 2020-10-07

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $693,603$ on 2020-10-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,463$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,141.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,141.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $559,079$ on 2020-10-07

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $155,465$ on 2020-10-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,574$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,183.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,183.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $144,284$ on 2020-10-07

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,413$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,038.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 144.7)}}\) (asimptote \(20,038.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $772$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{784.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 118.5)}}\) (asimptote \(784.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,892$ on 2020-10-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Denmark recovered 12%

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,201$ on 2020-10-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $663$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{615.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(615.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,832$ on 2020-10-07